AFC Championship game spread

guppy wrote:The line opened at 6.5 with the Broncos favored of course (they should be - home field, superior receivers, stronger overall roster on paper, etc.), but early betting with money going on the Pats has forced the line to move down to 4.5 or 4.


Who has more pressure on him to win, Peyton or Tom? 



Answer:  Peyton.  He's a victim of his own success.  If you lead the highest scoring offense in history, and then don't finish the deal by winning the Superbowl, isn't that kinda of the same thing as going 18-1, when the 1 loss made all the previous 18 wins "meaningless"?  Aren't the 2013 Broncos in the same situation as the 2007 Patriots?  Anything less than the Lombardi Trophy is a failure?

Is the analogy apt, yes or no?

George1963 wrote:Answer:  Peyton.  He's a victim of his own success.  If you lead the highest scoring offense in history, and then don't finish the deal by winning the Superbowl, isn't that kinda of the same thing as going 18-1, when the 1 loss made all the previous 18 wins "meaningless"?  Aren't the 2013 Broncos in the same situation as the 2007 Patriots?  Anything less than the Lombardi Trophy is a failure?

Yes. 31 teams are failures every year.


Aren't the 2013 Broncos in the same situation as the 2007 Patriots?

Not even close.


[b]Is the analogy apt, yes or no?

I'm not sure what the analogy is.



Why don't you try being honest for a change.  You know exactly what I'm talking about.   You must not  have been watching any of the sports shows or reading anything about the AFCC game.  Maybe you've tuned out to football since the Colts lost.  All the shows and commentators (ex NFLers) are saying there is far more pressure on Peyton to win this year than there is on Brady or the Pats.  Peyton just had the most explosive offense in history -- just like the Pats did in 07.   But the Pats failed to close the deal and lost in the Superbowl.  18-1, 18-1, 18-1, hahahahaha.  Remember 18-1?  That's what all the Pats haters were popping champagne corks over.    "18 wins don't mean a thing when you aint got that ring".  You remember that at all?  Search your memory hard, maybe it will come to you.   The undefeated, record scoring 2007 Patriots were EXPECTED to win the Superbowl.  But they didn't.  That brought untold joy to you and millions of others, did it not?     

Broncos are in the same -- or very similar --  position this year as far as expectations are concerned.  With all the records the Broncos and Peyton personally set, and basically going from the starting gate to the finish line of the regular season as Number 1 in the Power Rankings, the Broncos, with all their offensive firepower, are EXPECTED to win, not just the AFC, but the Superbowl.  Anything less will be a HUGE failure..... not like the other 31 teams' failures at all, but definitely like the failure of the Pats in 07, who, like the Broncos this year, were the strongest team on paper.  Disingenuous comment by you comparing Denver losing as being the same as 31 other teams not winning the SB.  The disappointment with Denver losing will be HUGE, as compared to, oh, lets say the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, unlike Denver, are not quarterbacked by an NFL legend.  At his age, and with what he's done this year, Peyton's time is NOW.   Peyton's post-season history, with his 8 one-and-done's in the playoffs, and his below .500 win percentage has his legacy on the line this year.  He needs this victory far more than Brady does.  With Tom's vastly superior record in head-to-head games, as well as career playoff record, Superbowl appearances, and Superbowl rings, Brady, by comparison, is playing with house money in this game,  and simply does not have the same pressure on him as Manning.  So says all the commentators, and they say it firmly without hesitation or equivocation.   At Manning's age, the feeling is, get your second ring now Peyton, or just forget about it, your little brother will probably always have more than you.  There is an urgency and expectation with Denver this year, for this game, that is inapplicable to the other 31 teams, including the Patriots. 

There was an expectation to win with the '07 Pats.  Failure was devastating.  There is a similar expectation to not just win, but win it all, with this year's Broncos.  Failure by them this year, if it happens, will be similarly devastating.

That's the analogy.
 
But then of course you knew that.  Even Sheila, an IMPARTIAL observer, readily and easily agreed with the analogy.  No surprise, since it is obvious after all.  But for some reason that I truly failure to understand, you feel the need to come on here and play "Mickey the Dunce",  and act like you don't know what I'm talking about. "Oh, what analogy?"  Please.  Just stop. 
 
I'd respect you a lot more if you would simply be honest.


[/b]

~Sheila~ wrote:




I'm leaning towards Denver for my pick.


I don't blame you.  That would be the conventional wisdom.  Denver's at home which I think is a huge advantage.  That's why I'm so pissed about the Pats losing to Miami at the end of the year.  They had home field in their grasp if they won that game, and they blew it.  Oh well.

guppy wrote:

~Sheila~ wrote:




I'm leaning towards Denver for my pick.


I don't blame you.  That would be the conventional wisdom.

George1963 wrote:
He could win the next two, go to the Lions and win a fourth head to head against Brady and Peter King will still say Brady is better.
"Yea, he has one more ring, but he won two with dome teams and Brady has a better winning percentage in the playoffs and Manning had better talent around him and...."

Just the way it is.


No its not.  Manning gets plenty of credit in the media.  If Manning wins the next two, and then he has three and Brady has three, the media, including King, will say Manning's better.






I don't see it. If you break the team scoring record you're expected to win the championship? Is that why the teams are analogous?
Well, the last 3 teams to do it haven't, and the Broncos aren't expected to, so...
I don't see it.

You make some fair points.  But what do you mean the Broncos aren't expected to win the SB?  I think they are expected by many to go all the way.   By the way, the spread for the Pats game is now 5.5 last I heard. 

I just think there is a general feeling out there that people expect that this is Manning's year.  Yes, you break team record in scoring, you're going to be widely favored to with the championship.  I'm sticking with the analogy that failure by the Broncos to win the championship will be on par with (or at least close to) failure by the 07 Pats to win the championship.  The Pats failure back then was epic, and I will grant you that a failure by the Broncos this year might not be as hugely disappointing, but it will be close.  I think the expectations are that high for Denver -- just because of Manning and what he did this year.   And now that I am typing this, I think that is actually unfair to Manning.  That's why I said before, he's a victim of his own success.  His success in the regular season was so spectacular that people expect the same thing in the playoffs.  That's why Elway came out and pleaded for people to get off Manning's back and pump the brakes on the criticism, or whatever he was asking for.


Which leads me to my next point.  I am a little bit worried about the refs.  I think the NFL would love to see Peyton in the SB, coming back from neck surgeries and being probably the unanimous MVP.  Therefore, I am very concerned that the refs at some point in the game, are going to give a very, lets call it "generous" call at some critical point, to Manning or to one of his receivers.   I'm slightly buying into a conspiracy theory here.  There is going to be some B.S. call that's going to go against the Pats at a crucial time.  Watch for it.  I hope I'm wrong, but I am very concerned.   

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Rick wrote:
Which leads me to my next point.  I am a little bit worried about the refs.  I think the NFL would love to see Peyton in the SB, coming back from neck surgeries and being probably the unanimous MVP.  Therefore, I am very concerned that the refs at some point in the game, are going to give a very, lets call it "generous" call at some critical point, to Manning or to one of his receivers.   I'm slightly buying into a conspiracy theory here.  There is going to be some B.S. call that's going to go against the Pats at a crucial time.  Watch for it.  I hope I'm wrong, but I am very concerned.



If there's a messed up call don't blame it on conspiracy. Blame it on the "let the boys play" nonsense of the early 2000s they seem to be slipping back to and the idiotic policy of breaking up the crews and having "All Star" officials in the playoffs.
They have Tony Corrente as the ref. Visiting teams were penalized 6% more than home teams in his games this year this year and home teams won 80% of the games he's worked.
Great.



Interesting stats.  Whatever you call it, "conspiracy" or "let the boys play", my fear is that there is going to be a moment, late in the game, when its going to take guts for a refs to make a close call, that clearly should be made, against the Broncos, and they simply choke in the moment in front of 70,000 hostile fans, and they fail to make the call.  Or the other way around, that they make a ticky tacky call against the Pats on a third and long that keeps a key Denver drive alive.  I'm really hoping it doesn't happen, but the fear of it happening is there. 

Here's one.  On the pass interference call that Welker drew late in the game vs. the Chargers, the ball was a mile overthrown over his head, with no possible chance for Welker to catch it.   Suddenly the concept of "uncatchable" was not a relevant consideration.  Pass interference is pass interference.  Period.  None of this "uncatchable" stuff coming into play to cancel out the pass interference (like in the Pats-Carolina game).