Goal line stand

duck wrote:I forgot about our goal line stand.  Wasn't that a thing of beauty?  When was the last time we saw a Packer team do that -- the 2011 opener against the Saints??

However, McCarthy's decision to decline the 10 yard penalty was insane.  3rd-and-11 at the 11 is much better than 4th-and-1 on the 1.

Wrong Duckles...  That was the proper call.  Remember--the shrekker just did the opposite a couple of games ago and apparently learned his lesson.  90% of NFL caliber head coaches kick the FG there...  Johnny boy just couldn't resist and fisted himself there... 

duck wrote:However, McCarthy's decision to decline the 10 yard penalty was insane.  3rd-and-11 at the 11 is much better than 4th-and-1 on the 1.

duck wrote:I forgot about our goal line stand.  Wasn't that a thing of beauty?  When was the last time we saw a Packer team do that -- the 2011 opener against the Saints??

However, McCarthy's decision to decline the 10 yard penalty was insane.  3rd-and-11 at the 11 is much better than 4th-and-1 on the 1.

milani wrote:

duck wrote:I forgot about our goal line stand.  Wasn't that a thing of beauty?  When was the last time we saw a Packer team do that -- the 2011 opener against the Saints??

However, McCarthy's decision to decline the 10 yard penalty was insane.  3rd-and-11 at the 11 is much better than 4th-and-1 on the 1.

I agree. It was the wrong call. But this is where the inane outthinks the insane.
MM probably believed Harbaugh would kick the FG from the 1 anyway. If he takes the penalty he's probably afraid Flacco will burn him in the end zone. But Harbaugh outstupefies him and decides to go for it right into the teeth of our bulk.

duck wrote:

milani wrote:

duck wrote:I forgot about our goal line stand.  Wasn't that a thing of beauty?  When was the last time we saw a Packer team do that -- the 2011 opener against the Saints??

However, McCarthy's decision to decline the 10 yard penalty was insane.  3rd-and-11 at the 11 is much better than 4th-and-1 on the 1.

I agree. It was the wrong call. But this is where the inane outthinks the insane.
MM probably believed Harbaugh would kick the FG from the 1 anyway. If he takes the penalty he's probably afraid Flacco will burn him in the end zone. But Harbaugh outstupefies him and decides to go for it right into the teeth of our bulk.

Yes, I'm sure MM's calculation was that Harbaugh would simply kick the FG.  However, him going for it on 4th-and-1 put the Packers in a tough spot.  If the Ravens score, the Packers give up 7 points.  Even if they don't, the Packers are dangerously pinned deep.

The odds of converting a 3rd-and-11 are not very good at all.  Converting a third down in general is about 37%.  For this distance, I'd guess it's around 20%.

With a 3rd-and-11, there's a much greater probability of the Ravens ending up with a FG attempt.  With a 4th-and-1 on the 1, there's a good chance the Ravens score a TD (I'd guess about 50/50) and even if they don't the Packers are stuck starting at the Ravens' one yard line.

I disagree with MB, HD and Throttle and stick with my take that MM should have taken the penalty.

ended...   

duck wrote:

milani wrote:

duck wrote:I forgot about our goal line stand.  Wasn't that a thing of beauty?  When was the last time we saw a Packer team do that -- the 2011 opener against the Saints??

However, McCarthy's decision to decline the 10 yard penalty was insane.  3rd-and-11 at the 11 is much better than 4th-and-1 on the 1.

I agree. It was the wrong call. But this is where the inane outthinks the insane.
MM probably believed Harbaugh would kick the FG from the 1 anyway. If he takes the penalty he's probably afraid Flacco will burn him in the end zone. But Harbaugh outstupefies him and decides to go for it right into the teeth of our bulk.

Yes, I'm sure MM's calculation was that Harbaugh would simply kick the FG.  However, him going for it on 4th-and-1 put the Packers in a tough spot.  If the Ravens score, the Packers give up 7 points.  Even if they don't, the Packers are dangerously pinned deep.

The odds of converting a 3rd-and-11 are not very good at all.  Converting a third down in general is about 37%.  For this distance, I'd guess it's around 20%.

With a 3rd-and-11, there's a much greater probability of the Ravens ending up with a FG attempt.  With a 4th-and-1 on the 1, there's a good chance the Ravens score a TD (I'd guess about 50/50) and even if they don't the Packers are stuck starting at the Ravens' one yard line.

I disagree with MB, HD and Throttle and stick with my take that MM should have taken the penalty.

JnC4GB wrote:Late to the party, but yeah, you're wrong here Duck.

I shit a brick earlier this year when McCarthy in a similar situation shit on his D and went the gutless route after the D had EARNED his respect.

Just as they had today.
Believe it or not, Coach Vaporlock actually LEARNED something...props to him for doing the "Go get 'em boys" route for a D that was hot.
Right call there win or lose.

duck wrote:

JnC4GB wrote:Late to the party, but yeah, you're wrong here Duck.

I shit a brick earlier this year when McCarthy in a similar situation shit on his D and went the gutless route after the D had EARNED his respect.

Just as they had today.
Believe it or not, Coach Vaporlock actually LEARNED something...props to him for doing the "Go get 'em boys" route for a D that was hot.
Right call there win or lose.

I get the point that from a leadership/morale standpoint, there were huge intangibles to showing that level of confidence in the defense.  Maybe even if the Ravens had scored a TD that trust might have paid dividends later.

However, I don't like the idea of letting another team get into a 50/50 proposition of scoring a TD in that situation.

Let's flip this a bit and compare prevailing strategies when a team gets close to FG range.  If the opposing team is at the outer range of a FG attempt, let's say the 36 or 37 yard line, and you have a chance to back them up ten yards, what the hell do you think most coaches will do?  Decline the penalty and let them go for a 50/50 FG attempt?  Nope.  They will take the 10 yard penalty and try to get them out of range.  

Bottom line is that it worked out and it was a testament to how well our D was playing today.  Had the Ravens scored a TD, I bet you guys would be singing a completely different tune now.

_HD_ wrote:

duck wrote:

JnC4GB wrote:Late to the party, but yeah, you're wrong here Duck.

I shit a brick earlier this year when McCarthy in a similar situation shit on his D and went the gutless route after the D had EARNED his respect.

Just as they had today.
Believe it or not, Coach Vaporlock actually LEARNED something...props to him for doing the "Go get 'em boys" route for a D that was hot.
Right call there win or lose.

I get the point that from a leadership/morale standpoint, there were huge intangibles to showing that level of confidence in the defense.  Maybe even if the Ravens had scored a TD that trust might have paid dividends later.

However, I don't like the idea of letting another team get into a 50/50 proposition of scoring a TD in that situation.

Let's flip this a bit and compare prevailing strategies when a team gets close to FG range.  If the opposing team is at the outer range of a FG attempt, let's say the 36 or 37 yard line, and you have a chance to back them up ten yards, what the hell do you think most coaches will do?  Decline the penalty and let them go for a 50/50 FG attempt?  Nope.  They will take the 10 yard penalty and try to get them out of range.  

Bottom line is that it worked out and it was a testament to how well our D was playing today.  Had the Ravens scored a TD, I bet you guys would be singing a completely different tune now.

You're just flat out not cluing on this one, Duck...  You do the same thing every time on this.  You don't give somebody two chances from the 11 yard line over one chance from the 1--when 90% of head coaches are going to do the right thing and kick the FG there.  Nobody likes to come out of that without any points like Johnny boy did.  You can bet he'd like that back--after all--it did only likely cost him the game.    You're, in effect, giving the opposition one cost-free crack at the end zone while in the heart of the red zone...if they don't make it--they just line up and kick the FG on 4th down like they would have anyway.  Who gives a shit if it is kicked from the 8 or 15 yard line.  It's a chip shot regardless...

This is exactly how Fatty fucked up a couple of weeks ago.  The moron took the penalty and handed them two fucking chances that netted them 7 when they almost certainly would have kicked the FG on 4th down...so yeah--25 years into coaching on some level--and the dumb ass finally figures out something that should just be hard-wired in his brain.  It's no brainerland, Duck...I'm sorry to have to say...

duck wrote:

_HD_ wrote:

duck wrote:

JnC4GB wrote:Late to the party, but yeah, you're wrong here Duck.

I shit a brick earlier this year when McCarthy in a similar situation shit on his D and went the gutless route after the D had EARNED his respect.

Just as they had today.
Believe it or not, Coach Vaporlock actually LEARNED something...props to him for doing the "Go get 'em boys" route for a D that was hot.
Right call there win or lose.

I get the point that from a leadership/morale standpoint, there were huge intangibles to showing that level of confidence in the defense.  Maybe even if the Ravens had scored a TD that trust might have paid dividends later.

However, I don't like the idea of letting another team get into a 50/50 proposition of scoring a TD in that situation.

Let's flip this a bit and compare prevailing strategies when a team gets close to FG range.  If the opposing team is at the outer range of a FG attempt, let's say the 36 or 37 yard line, and you have a chance to back them up ten yards, what the hell do you think most coaches will do?  Decline the penalty and let them go for a 50/50 FG attempt?  Nope.  They will take the 10 yard penalty and try to get them out of range.  

Bottom line is that it worked out and it was a testament to how well our D was playing today.  Had the Ravens scored a TD, I bet you guys would be singing a completely different tune now.

You're just flat out not cluing on this one, Duck...  You do the same thing every time on this.  You don't give somebody two chances from the 11 yard line over one chance from the 1--when 90% of head coaches are going to do the right thing and kick the FG there.  Nobody likes to come out of that without any points like Johnny boy did.  You can bet he'd like that back--after all--it did only likely cost him the game.    You're, in effect, giving the opposition one cost-free crack at the end zone while in the heart of the red zone...if they don't make it--they just line up and kick the FG on 4th down like they would have anyway.  Who gives a shit if it is kicked from the 8 or 15 yard line.  It's a chip shot regardless...

This is exactly how Fatty fucked up a couple of weeks ago.  The moron took the penalty and handed them two fucking chances that netted them 7 when they almost certainly would have kicked the FG on 4th down...so yeah--25 years into coaching on some level--and the dumb ass finally figures out something that should just be hard-wired in his brain.  It's no brainerland, Duck...I'm sorry to have to say...

Correct yourself here, HD.  Backing them up to the 11 would not give them TWO chances to get a TD.... almost undoubtedly just ONE.  This was hardly two-down territory.  They would run one play and unless it somehow came down to the 1 again, Harbaugh would have sent in the FG unit.


Jeezus, Duck...     Read what is underlined above, k?  Can somebody help out our friend here tonite, for God's sake...

I think everyone... you, me, MM, and most of the folks watching the game... thought Harbaugh would take the three points, given how well the Packer D was playing.  That was certainly the correct call in such a tight game.  If the ball was on the 2 yard line, I'm sure he would have.  And if the ball was on the 2 yard line, I would have toggled over to your position.

However, with the ball on the 1, the likelihood of a Ravens TD was at least 50/50.  The way our defense was playing, I was pretty sure they would not convert a 3rd-and-11.

_HD_ wrote:

duck wrote:

_HD_ wrote:

duck wrote:

JnC4GB wrote:Late to the party, but yeah, you're wrong here Duck.

I shit a brick earlier this year when McCarthy in a similar situation shit on his D and went the gutless route after the D had EARNED his respect.

Just as they had today.
Believe it or not, Coach Vaporlock actually LEARNED something...props to him for doing the "Go get 'em boys" route for a D that was hot.
Right call there win or lose.

I get the point that from a leadership/morale standpoint, there were huge intangibles to showing that level of confidence in the defense.  Maybe even if the Ravens had scored a TD that trust might have paid dividends later.

However, I don't like the idea of letting another team get into a 50/50 proposition of scoring a TD in that situation.

Let's flip this a bit and compare prevailing strategies when a team gets close to FG range.  If the opposing team is at the outer range of a FG attempt, let's say the 36 or 37 yard line, and you have a chance to back them up ten yards, what the hell do you think most coaches will do?  Decline the penalty and let them go for a 50/50 FG attempt?  Nope.  They will take the 10 yard penalty and try to get them out of range.  

Bottom line is that it worked out and it was a testament to how well our D was playing today.  Had the Ravens scored a TD, I bet you guys would be singing a completely different tune now.

You're just flat out not cluing on this one, Duck...  You do the same thing every time on this.  You don't give somebody two chances from the 11 yard line over one chance from the 1--when 90% of head coaches are going to do the right thing and kick the FG there.  Nobody likes to come out of that without any points like Johnny boy did.  You can bet he'd like that back--after all--it did only likely cost him the game.    You're, in effect, giving the opposition one cost-free crack at the end zone while in the heart of the red zone...if they don't make it--they just line up and kick the FG on 4th down like they would have anyway.  Who gives a shit if it is kicked from the 8 or 15 yard line.  It's a chip shot regardless...

This is exactly how Fatty fucked up a couple of weeks ago.  The moron took the penalty and handed them two fucking chances that netted them 7 when they almost certainly would have kicked the FG on 4th down...so yeah--25 years into coaching on some level--and the dumb ass finally figures out something that should just be hard-wired in his brain.  It's no brainerland, Duck...I'm sorry to have to say...

Correct yourself here, HD.  Backing them up to the 11 would not give them TWO chances to get a TD.... almost undoubtedly just ONE.  This was hardly two-down territory.  They would run one play and unless it somehow came down to the 1 again, Harbaugh would have sent in the FG unit.


Jeezus, Duck...     Read what is underlined above, k?  Can somebody help out our friend here tonite, for God's sake...

I think everyone... you, me, MM, and most of the folks watching the game... thought Harbaugh would take the three points, given how well the Packer D was playing.  That was certainly the correct call in such a tight game.  If the ball was on the 2 yard line, I'm sure he would have.  And if the ball was on the 2 yard line, I would have toggled over to your position.

However, with the ball on the 1, the likelihood of a Ravens TD was at least 50/50.  The way our defense was playing, I was pretty sure they would not convert a 3rd-and-11.