Hmmm... all defense so far

duck wrote:All we've ever heard about TT's drafting philosophy is that it's based on BAP principles. I'm wondering if the 2012 draft represents a departure from that. The 4th round just ended and every player he's drafted so far fills a need in our decimated defense. No offensive players were the "best available"??

I realize that a common successful drafting strategy now is a combination of drafting for need in adherence with BAP principles in which you target players of need but don't go after them until their value matches the draft number. Our two #2 picks seem to be a result of this. TT had these guys targeted but didn't reach for them early; instead he waited until his estimated value matched the draft position... and then he traded up for them.

However, five out of five picks so far are for defense.

I'm not complaining, really. Our defense sucked last year and probably cost the Packers another Lombardi trophy. The decision to cut Jenkins and gamble on Neal was a catastrophic blunder by TT. I just hope he isn't now overreacting too much. At any rate, if our defense can again provide the kind of pressure Capers needs to use his various schemes, the Pack is going to be much improved in 2012.

We'll see...

Drafting the *best available player* is primarily in reality a farce. All GM's say they do it...and it's easy to say/do when you have no glaring holes in your roster crying out to be filled...but on a practical level--BAP means best available player in your position of need...

Ron Wolf originated the term/idea... It sounded good...but what did the great one himself do in the draft immediately following Randy dropping his drawers and flashing ass in the hallowed ground of Lambeau Field? That's right. In rounds 1, 2 AND 3...the BAP just happened to be a CB. Imagine that. How fortuitous...

duck wrote:Well HD, I think you're right... most of the BAP talk by GMs is just lip service. However, as I mentioned earlier, there is a hybrid variation that does separate the intelligent drafters from the total morons. The morons simply reach at any time for players they need and often forfeit value by doing so. The good drafters wait until the players they target truly are the best available on the board and bag them then... or in some cases if they feel the value of the player they're after exceeds the present value of the draft order, they will make a play to trade up and get him.

Drafting for need is perfectly reasonable as long as you don't reach and the player selected is appropriate for the round.

I know we've covered this many times before but it still stands out as a classic example of how NOT to draft: the dumb ass move Sherman did for punter B.J. Sander. In the second round he not only drafted a player who almost surely would have been available in the 6th or 7th round... but he additionally gave up extra draft picks to get him!

That's most of it, Duck...but there's another element that is crucial--and actually corresponds to the only instance obvious at this point where TT probably blew it in this draft...and that is--the Safety from Maine...McMillian... One can never be reminded enough--it's the fucking market that determines value--NOT ANYTHING ELSE...

So yes--you have to play your board--but the truly astute do so within the macro context of the market. That's the beauty after all in having a nose for rough diamonds... You don't need to dig them up right away and hurry to lock them up--because it's very unlikely someone else is just going to come skipping along and snatch them from underneath your nose...

duck wrote:I would have to agree with you, HD. On the surface it appears TT reached for this guy because it does appear he would have been available in a later round.

The only legitimate reason I could see for drafting this guy so high is if TT had reason to believe another team was about to pounce on him and TT had him valued so high above even a 4th round value that he did not want to squander this opportunity to make what in his mind would be a steal. Again, just speculation on my part. It does appear TT could have picked up another player AND bagged McMillan in a later round.

In fairness though, if you look at the entire draft, only McMillan appears to be a reach. In the case of all the higher round picks their rated "value" by many draft prognosticators was well within range (usually higher) than their draft number. This principle does not really apply to the 7th round compensatory picks, however, because that's when you roll the dice and try to pick up a project or two.

What do you think of the draft OVERALL? I'm happy with it. I believe our defense is going to be significantly improved and even an average defense coupled with the potent Packer offense is going to assure that the 2012 Packers will be contenders.

_HD_ wrote:

duck wrote:Well HD, I think you're right... most of the BAP talk by GMs is just lip service. However, as I mentioned earlier, there is a hybrid variation that does separate the intelligent drafters from the total morons. The morons simply reach at any time for players they need and often forfeit value by doing so. The good drafters wait until the players they target truly are the best available on the board and bag them then... or in some cases if they feel the value of the player they're after exceeds the present value of the draft order, they will make a play to trade up and get him.

Drafting for need is perfectly reasonable as long as you don't reach and the player selected is appropriate for the round.

I know we've covered this many times before but it still stands out as a classic example of how NOT to draft: the dumb ass move Sherman did for punter B.J. Sander. In the second round he not only drafted a player who almost surely would have been available in the 6th or 7th round... but he additionally gave up extra draft picks to get him!

That's most of it, Duck...but there's another element that is crucial--and actually corresponds to the only instance obvious at this point where TT probably blew it in this draft...and that is--the Safety from Maine...McMillian... One can never be reminded enough--it's the fucking market that determines value--NOT ANYTHING ELSE...

Now--let me be clear--I don't know enough about this dude to say with any certainty that he has/has not 4th round talent--but that's not the point--and clearly--TT felt he found a diamond in the rough here... However, regardless of what this dude turns out to be, one can be fairly certain in suggesting that, coming from Maine and being not only the only player drafted from that team--but the only player drafted from a New England college--he would have been available to land in the later rounds of the draft. There was no market for this player in the fourth round--so he necessarily therefore overspent in committing a 4th rounder to get him... The price he paid was the opportunity cost of whatever other 4th round player he could have gotten at the time who, unlike McMillian, would not have been expected to be available in the 6th/7th rounds...

So yes--you have to play your board--but the truly astute do so within the macro context of the market. That's the beauty after all in having a nose for rough diamonds... You don't need to dig them up right away and hurry to lock them up--because it's very unlikely someone else is just going to come skipping along and snatch them from underneath your nose...

MB20 wrote:

_HD_ wrote:

duck wrote:Well HD, I think you're right... most of the BAP talk by GMs is just lip service. However, as I mentioned earlier, there is a hybrid variation that does separate the intelligent drafters from the total morons. The morons simply reach at any time for players they need and often forfeit value by doing so. The good drafters wait until the players they target truly are the best available on the board and bag them then... or in some cases if they feel the value of the player they're after exceeds the present value of the draft order, they will make a play to trade up and get him.

Drafting for need is perfectly reasonable as long as you don't reach and the player selected is appropriate for the round.

I know we've covered this many times before but it still stands out as a classic example of how NOT to draft: the dumb ass move Sherman did for punter B.J. Sander. In the second round he not only drafted a player who almost surely would have been available in the 6th or 7th round... but he additionally gave up extra draft picks to get him!

That's most of it, Duck...but there's another element that is crucial--and actually corresponds to the only instance obvious at this point where TT probably blew it in this draft...and that is--the Safety from Maine...McMillian... One can never be reminded enough--it's the fucking market that determines value--NOT ANYTHING ELSE...

Now--let me be clear--I don't know enough about this dude to say with any certainty that he has/has not 4th round talent--but that's not the point--and clearly--TT felt he found a diamond in the rough here... However, regardless of what this dude turns out to be, one can be fairly certain in suggesting that, coming from Maine and being not only the only player drafted from that team--but the only player drafted from a New England college--he would have been available to land in the later rounds of the draft. There was no market for this player in the fourth round--so he necessarily therefore overspent in committing a 4th rounder to get him... The price he paid was the opportunity cost of whatever other 4th round player he could have gotten at the time who, unlike McMillian, would not have been expected to be available in the 6th/7th rounds...

So yes--you have to play your board--but the truly astute do so within the macro context of the market. That's the beauty after all in having a nose for rough diamonds... You don't need to dig them up right away and hurry to lock them up--because it's very unlikely someone else is just going to come skipping along and snatch them from underneath your nose...

I find these things to be true. However, if this is the biggest complaint we end up having with this draft, then that ain't bad.

RingoCStarrQB wrote:McKenzie, Antaun Edwards..........and Who was that other guy.......oh no it was Fred Vinson? At least just picking one in the 4th lessens the probability of a trifecta. But then again............2 defensive linemen...........and a DE wearing #53 (another Fred Carr at least pleaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase). Is any one wearing #96?.......Oh no..........its Mike Neal. This draft was simply a kneejerk reaction to giving up on Nick Barnett and inflated hopes for Zombo and Walden. CJ Wilson...........Neal..............Green............Wynn. Poweeeee!!

WTF do you have against Fred Vinson? That was probably the best pick Ron Wolf ever made in GB--right up there with Art Shell and Howie Long whom he took when he was GM in Oakland. That was who he traded to Seattle even up for Ahman Green--the best tailback ever in the long/storied tradition of the GB Packers...

duck wrote:
This is pure speculation on my part, but after observing TT's draft--I have a strong suspician that the player he really wanted in the first round (probably Merceles or McClellen) was already gone by the time 28 came around. He sat there all day watching noted down tradesman, Belichick, repeatedly trading up to get his man the first day--and he solemnly went home with his dick in his hand and woke up for Day 2 loaded for fucking bear. But you see--TT is not an experienced bear hunter...and those unused to holding a gun in their hand often get caught up in it and overshoot--bagging anything causing a stir in the woods nearby. TT may have seen bear, but in the fourth round anyway--McMillian was just one unfucking lucky bad-ass raccoon who will hopefully not prove to be so overshot that it can't become a fine 'coon-skin cap for TT on his next fucking tour of the Davey Crockett homestead or something... (one of his favorites--no doubt)




Well, HD, we'll never know because the last thing in the world TT would ever do is deflate Perry's ego by admitting he really wanted someone else. Everything I've heard, however, is that Perry indeed was a player Green Bay had targeted.

It was definitely a weird draft for TT. In ALL of his previous drafts with Green Bay he only traded up three times and yet he did so three times this year. Part of it of course is that 12 picks, mostly late round, don't do much good to a contending team with a good core; instead that's something he would have relished back in 2005 and 2006 when he was trying to restock Sherman's bare cupboard. However, this still represents a marked departure from his regular M.O.

Coupled with his unusual participation in free agency, it provides a welcome departure from what we had feared was a systemic inflexibility. For whatever reason (perhaps a kick in the ass from above), TT is playing the game differently this year.

My take is that he's exhibiting all the characteristics of the GM of a team who believes its "window of opportunity" is NOW. Why he didn't take this approach last year is beyond me because 2011 was also in that window. At least I'm glad he finally figured it out.

Getting back to your point, I don't get the feeling this was a draft in which TT got mule kicked in the first round and then spent the next day on tilt, trading up willy-nilly and then making a reach in the 4th round. My sense is that this could end up being a particularly timely and fruitful draft for the Packers -- and that TT was very much in charge from the get go.

RingoCStarrQB wrote:Are you sure about that HD? You should have been there with me in Minneapolis. Found a great venue for a Monday night.........went downhill after that night though. Never made it over to Mad Dogs liquor store. Maybe next time.