Will the Green Bay Rodgers win?

by Guest Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:54 pm

Hard game to pick. Could be a blow out either way. With the Pack's marginal O-line offering no running game and the Pack's worst in the NFL run D...as usual it'll all come down to Aaron Rodgers. Take him away--and the Pack is looking like a 6-10 team at this point...

The Vikings currently find themselves with a 2-2 record and in a 3-way tie for 2nd place (or 3rd place based on division record tie-breakers) in the NFC North. So this upcoming road game against the Packers this coming Thursday night will be a critical game to deciding both teams' fates at the end of the season. Unfortunately for both teams, it comes on a short week and is only 3 days away! But this got me wondering if there were some ways the Vikings might be able to take advantage of critical trends and match-ups to come away with an improbable win in Lambeau Field. So, I took to the internet to do some statistical data mining to see what I could uncover, and the results, well, they look a little mixed.

The first thing to consider is how the Packer's offense operates, and what kinds of trends have been working for them. What kinds of areas are the Packers excelling in and where are they weakest? Starting with offense, here are some of their overall ranks.
Green Bay Offensive Ranks Overall
28th: Total Yards/Game (306.5)
16th: Points/Game (23)
9th: Third Down Conversion % (48%)
16th: Penalties (25)
15th: Passing Yards/Game (233.5)
3rd: QB Rating (109.1)
2nd: First Down Passing % (42.3)
25th: Sacks Allowed (10)
19th: Passing Attempts/Game (130)
25th: Rushing Yards/Carry (3.5)
28th: Rushing Yards/Game (73)
24th: First Down Rushing % (18.1)
30th: Rushing Attempts/Game (20. Cool

Next up, I consulted Pro Football Focus to find out which players are standing out and making an impact so far this season, and which are having a tough start:
PFF Highest Rated "Green" Starters
QB Aaron Rodgers (+10.1)
WR Jordy Nelson (+8.7)
OG Josh Sitton (+8.4)
OT Bryan Bulaga (+1.7)
PFF Lowest Rated "Red" Starters
RB Eddie Lacy (-2.4)
C Corey Linsley (-2.9)
WR Jarrett Boykin (-3.4)
OT T.J. Lang (-3.6)
OG Derek Sherrod (-8.2)
This Packers offense still runs through Aaron Rodgers first. He's got the 3rd highest passer rating in the league, which continues to speak towards his elite efficiency. The Packers are a pass-first team as evidenced by their 30th ranking in rushing attempts per game and the percentage of 1st downs they achieve via the air as opposed to the ground (more than double). All that said, their offensive line is still allowing a lot of pressure to Aaron Rodgers with the 8th most sacks allowed through 4 games (10 on the year). And three of their five starting offensive lineman have a "red" grade overall, meaning they are not doing well in the trenches. Their lack of success up front might also be impacting their lowly ranked rushing attack in which they are achieving only 3.5 yards per carry and a paltry 73 rushing yards per game.
If the Vikings defense wants to control this game, they will have to first and foremost: stop the run. This should be a relatively easy task based on the lack of success the Packers have had thus far in the season. Once that is taken care of, they would be best served to blanket the Green Bay receivers with man coverage with particular focus on shutting down Jordy Nelson, and rely on their defensive line to apply pressure on Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings should have no trouble collecting several sacks as the Packers are allowing an average of more than 2 per game.
While at first glance, it would appear that the Vikings defensive line should be able to man-handle the Packers weak offensive line, the match-ups don't really favor the Vikings all that much. Our best players tend to match-up against their best players, and our worst graded players tend to match-up against their worst players. That said, there are two match-ups that heavily favors the Vikings in the trenches and in the pass rushing department:
DT Shariff Floyd (+2.1 Overall) vs C Jordan Linsley (-2.9 Overall) and RG T.J. Lang (-3.6 Overall)
LB Chad Greenway (+1.3 Pass Rush) vs C Jordan Linsley (-1.3 Pass Block) and RG T.J. Lang (-0.6 Pass Block)
In the secondary, we should matchup a little better than we have in year's past, at least in terms of containing the big plays. Our two highest rated players on defense happen to be defensive backs Harrison Smith (+8.1) and Josh Robinson (+5.1) with Robert Blanton getting an honorable mention (+0.9). Our cornerbacks will need to play better in hopes of containing Jordy Nelson though as that is a matchup I don't even want to highlight...but feel I must:
WR Jordy Nelson (+8.7 Overall) vs CB Xavier Rhodes (-0.5 Overall) and Captain Munnerlyn (-1.1 Overall)
Harrison Smith and Josh Robinson can certainly help in that regard as they have the two highest pass coverage ratings from PFF (+5.6 and +5.0 respectively), but Nelson could feast in short crossing routes, slants and routes all over the middle of the field underneath our safeties, especially in base defense when Robinson is on the sideline. Even Randall Cobb (+0.9) could take advantage in the same way. But their ancillary receiving options after those two drops off quickly with #3 WR Jarett Boykin and TE Andrew Quarless grading as average or worse options. As mentioned above, our defensive attention should be on shutting down Jordy Nelson first and foremost. This will prove to be a difficult task as all starting linebackers are graded in the red on pass coverage, and Rhodes and Munnerlyn are average or worse in pass coverage too. Unfortunately, if Aaron Rodgers can find adequate time behind an offensive line whose grades are high overall in pass blocking, he will find Nelson and Cobb eventually and pick apart our defense at will.
While the Packers are only averaging 23 points per game so far, I would expect them to put up at least that many points Thursday night, as our defense is allowing a similar average of 21 points per game. Due to the way their receivers match-up against our corners and linebackers, and the fact that they have one of the league's most efficient quarterbacks in the league, I would expect at least 21-24 points from this Green Bay offense.
Let's turn our attention to the Green Bay defense, and see if there are ways our offense can take advantage of some their match-ups.
Green Bay Defensive Ranks Overall
26th: Total Yards Allowed/Game
32nd: 3rd Down % Allowed (53%)
9th: Penalties
31st: Time of Possession
17th: Points Allowed per Game (24)
5h: Passing Yards Allowed per Game (214)
6th: QB Rating Allowed (78.9)
14th: 1st Down % on Passes Allowed (35.7%)
21st: Sacks (6)
23rd: Yards per carry (4.6)
32nd: Rushing Yards per Game (176)
27th: 1st Down % Allowed on Rushes (27.5%)
5th: Takeaway/Giveaway Differential (+4)
PFF Highest Rated "Green" Starters:
LB/DE Julius Peppers (+8.2)
DE Mike Daniels (+7.3)
LB Jamari Lattimore (+2.0)
CB Sam Shields (+1.9)
CB Tramon Williams (+1.4)

PFF Lowest Rated "Red" Players:
LB AJ Hawk (-1.3)
DB Micah Hyde (-1.3)
LB Clay Matthews (-2.5)
LB Mike Neal (-4.9)
NT Letroy Guion (-5.7)

First off, the Packers have a pretty good pass defense. Three of their five highest rated players from PFF are either pass rushers or defensive backs. Their top three pass rushers based on PFF pass rush grading are OLB/DE Peppers (+9.9), DE Datone Jones (+3.9) and DE Mike Daniels (+1.9) each with 1 sack on the year. As a team the Packers allow the 5thfewest passing yards in the NFL, and the 6th worst QB rating, and this is after facing quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, most of whom are pretty efficient quarterbacks by most statistical measures. In addition, CB Sam Shields and FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix score the highest pass coverage grades on the team from PFF. As a disciplined defense with the 9th fewest penalties, they will be able to stick on our receivers without drawing too many flags. So, the Vikings shouldn't feel the need to lean on their passing game this week as they may find passing yards hard to come by against the Packers in Lambeau. Overall the Vikings passing game has no real match-up advantages that it could exploit, with only two players graded in the "green" in passing offense: Teddy Bridgewater and Rhett Ellison. And with Teddy Bridgewater nursing an ankle injury anyway, the Vikings game plan should be: run the ball, and run some more! To drive this point home even more Matt Kalil and Charlie Johnson on the left side of the formation (our two weakest pass blockers from PFF) will have their hands full with Julius Peppers and Datone Jones, the Packers two best pass rushers on their right side of the defense. The Vikings would be wise to load up some blocking help via tight ends and running backs on the left side of the offensive formation.
So, if the passing game will find it tough going, then a strong run game should help lead the Vikings to victory, because after four weeks, the Packers have the worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 176 rushing yards per game. The Vikings were able to get their run game going against a weak Atlanta defense last week, and I would expect similar results against the Packers. Besides, the Packers only have two players on defense graded in the "Green" in run defense: DE Mike Daniels (+5.9 run defense), and SS Morgan Burnett (+1.1 run defense). Both of those players typically line up on the left side of the defensive formation. Naturally, running up the middle and off the left side of the offensive line more often should give the Vikings favorable match-ups to avoid both of their best run defenders, and instead run right at Letroy Guion, Julius Peppers and Datone Jones who are some of the worst run defenders on their defense (-5.4, -1.5 and -4.5 respectively). This should also help negate the massive advantage the Packers have in pass rushing on that side of the formation too. By leaning on the running game, this should also allow the Vikings to take control of the clock (something the Packers defense has struggled with) limiting opportunities for Aaron Rodgers and their prolific offense. Also to our advantage, the Packers have the worst 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL, so the Vikings should feel ok running the ball even on 3rd down. Lastly, the Packers have a knack for generating a lot of turnovers (5th best in the NFL so far), so running with good ball security should help limit their chances for interceptions, strip sacks and forced fumbles.
The last element of the game the Vikings need to take advantage of is Special Teams. The Packers have nothing special (no pun intended) in the return game with DuJuan Harris and Micah Hyde registering generic, or league average, "white" grades. Mason Crosby has 12 out of 20 touchbacks so far (60%), so Cordarrelle Patterson (with currently the 3rdbest return average in the NFL) should have a few opportunities for some returns. Similarly, punter Tim Mastay (who is punting well with a 43.2 net average) will be punting to Marcus Sherels, graded as the 4th best punt returner in the NFL and tied for 15th best punt return average. This is an underrated element of the game that could help give the Vikings better field position on Thursday night.
With a Vikings offense that is averaging only 22.8 points per game, they should find the opportunities a little easier on Thursday since the Packers allow an average of 24 points. If Bridgewater plays, I would expect about 24 points or so from our offense, with the opportunity for a few more if the ground game can get going early.

by JhnK307 Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:59 pm

You need a P.H.D. in statistics to decipher all that !

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by Guest Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:47 pm

JhnK307 wrote:You need a P.H.D. in statistics to decipher all that !

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Basically what they are saying is the queens will pound the rock and the Pack will throw the ball. Whomever can better defend against those two elements will win the game. As always--it all comes down to Rodgers. If he's on--it's lights out for the pansies. If he's not--Thor will have enough jerk material to keep his Bakers Square around the corner in jizzy jam-bone pie until at least thanksgiving--that is unless he slurps up all the inventory first... Laughing

by milani Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:10 pm

MM should not get all thrilled to run the ball as much as he hopes. Stay with your strengths. Get them on their heels first then you can give them a dose of Lacy and Starks. We will definitely need Starks to go east-west on a wet track Thursday. It is hard to get your defense ready on a 3 day week. So go no huddle west coast.

Straight up we have not faced a Viking team that has neither AP nor Jerod Allen since about 2006 during the Muffin T-Jacker era. With the short week I would try to get into the box and slow the running game down any which way. The Vikings will stay on the ground as long as they can unlike the Bears who have to show off their Model T passing game no matter how many ground yards they pile up.

In fact the last Thursday night game we played the Vikings was in 2006 with a cold, flurry night in December when Muffin Man allowed T-Jacker to throw only 5 passes. 1 Favre INT to the house and 3 Dave Raymer FGs resulted in a 9-7 win for us. This one will be different. Be prepared for a shootout and do not stop shooting!

by JhnK307 Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:29 pm

I think Teddy Bear Bridgewater will scramble a lot. We all know how difficult a scrambling quaterback is to the Packers Defense !

by throttleplate Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:24 pm

this is a no brainer,pack all the way and it will be lots of scoring by the pack,not so much by the queens

by ILvLamp Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:07 pm

Something tells me Ponder is starting. If that's the case, all bets are off--it's a bye week for the Fudge. If Teddy starts, the Vikes win. Rain is predicted, so it will be low-scoring on both sides if that's the case, but Teddy will lead them to a win.

by Guest Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:29 pm

_HD_ wrote:
JhnK307 wrote:You need a P.H.D. in statistics to decipher all that !

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Basically what they are saying is the queens will pound the rock and the Pack will throw the ball. Whomever can better defend against those two elements will win the game. As always--it all comes down to Rodgers. If he's on--it's lights out for the pansies. If he's not--Thor will have enough jerk material to keep his Bakers Square around the corner in jizzy jam-bone pie until at least thanksgiving--that is unless he slurps up all the inventory first...

No, that's ok...I'll save the jism for you...as usual.

Thor

by RingoCStarrQB Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:30 pm

Brett is pickin' the Pack!

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by MB20 Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:42 pm

ILvLamp wrote:Something tells me Ponder is starting. If that's the case, all bets are off--it's a bye week for the Fudge. If Teddy starts, the Vikes win. Rain is predicted, so it will be low-scoring on both sides if that's the case, but Teddy will lead them to a win.

And, if it does rain, it'll make the field just slick enough, I'd imagine, to give Zimmer pause in starting Teddy. And, LMV, I meant to post a few weeks ago that watching the Vikings play the Cards in the preseason, I was impressed. It was only 2nd- and 3rd-stringers, but the Cardinals brought heat. Teddy seemed to know what to do when the pocket collapsed around him. It doesn't matter much who is chasing your ass when your ass is being chased- you still have to know where to go and what to do, and he seems to get it.

Anyway, this team is still paper thin. The metrics HD posted show how top-heavy this team is- lose just one particular key performer, and you're looking at a season circling the toilet. They also confirm some things my unscientific eyeballs are telling me- Clay is having an awful year (What the fuck with him overpursuing on every fucking running play?), TJ Lang is replacement-level, overrated crap, Hyde needs to ride pine and stop stunting Ha Ha's development, etc. That defense just ain't workin', and the longer it takes to have a semblance of a running game (Why do we go through this learning curve every goddamned season, anyway?), the harder the offense's life will be as the season wears on.

by throttleplate Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:05 am

fatty is playing possum with the offense as usual,wait untill week 8 and more scheming will be noticable.Now for the defense?just not together yet and not sure it will ever be.

by milani Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:35 pm

JhnK307 wrote:I think Teddy Bear Bridgewater will scramble a lot. We all know how difficult a scrambling quaterback is to the Packers Defense !

I would think with a tender ankle and a slippery track he may not want imitate Kaepernick. One bad step and Ponder gets to be on stage.

by ILvLamp Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:39 pm

MB20 wrote:
ILvLamp wrote:Something tells me Ponder is starting. If that's the case, all bets are off--it's a bye week for the Fudge. If Teddy starts, the Vikes win. Rain is predicted, so it will be low-scoring on both sides if that's the case, but Teddy will lead them to a win.
And, if it does rain, it'll make the field just slick enough, I'd imagine, to give Zimmer pause in starting Teddy. And, LMV, I meant to post a few weeks ago that watching the Vikings play the Cards in the preseason, I was impressed. It was only 2nd- and 3rd-stringers, but the Cardinals brought heat. Teddy seemed to know what to do when the pocket collapsed around him. It doesn't matter much who is chasing your ass when your ass is being chased- you still have to know where to go and what to do, and he seems to get it.

Anyway, this team is still paper thin. The metrics HD posted show how top-heavy this team is- lose just one particular key performer, and you're looking at a season circling the toilet. They also confirm some things my unscientific eyeballs are telling me- Clay is having an awful year (What the fuck with him overpursuing on every fucking running play?), TJ Lang is replacement-level, overrated crap, Hyde needs to ride pine and stop stunting Ha Ha's development, etc. That defense just ain't workin', and the longer it takes to have a semblance of a running game (Why do we go through this learning curve every goddamned season, anyway?), the harder the offense's life will be as the season wears on.

I think they've known all along they're not starting him. The rain is the clincher. They want the Packers to think Pond Scum isn't starting, but the Packers know better--that's why they keep saying they're preparing for Bridgewater (in case they change their mind). The Packers want them to think it'll throw a real wrench in their plans if Pond Scum starts instead of Bridgewater. What a wasted Thursday night of no sleep if he starts--ughhhh.

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