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Going two for four

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Post by guppy Sat May 24, 2014 9:32 am

Prior to 2013, Belichick traded away four 2013 draft picks to other teams for veteran players.  The 2013 draft picks he traded away, and the players who he got back in exchange were:


4th round for Aquib Talib,
5th round for Albert Haynesworth,
6th round for Chad Ochocinco,
7th round for LeGarrette Blount.


I'd say he went 2 for 4 there.  I don't know if we call going .500 good, just average, or terrible.  But in looking at it, you have to look at the two losers, Haynesworth and Ochocinco, and say how bad did he lose?  He lost picks in the 5th and 6th rounds for those two, so its not like he gave away a second or third round pick and got nothing back, he lost low round picks.  I'm not saying low round picks aren't valuable, they are.  I say there's nothing wrong in taking a risk every now and then on an iffy guy to see if he has anything left in the tank, as long as its a measured risk, and he's not giving away the store in the form of a new young top flight talent who could potentially be a part in the Patriots machinery for years to come.

Still don't know why he didn't bring Blount back?  I've never really seen an explanation.
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Post by Rick Sat May 24, 2014 10:20 am

But in looking at it, you have to look at the two losers, Haynesworth and Ochocinco, and say how bad did he lose?  He lost picks in the 5th and 6th rounds for those two, so its not like he gave away a second or third round pick and got nothing back, he lost low round picks.



Ochocinco cost them a 5th in 2012 as well. Those guys also cost the a little better than 5 mil in dead money in 2012. If they'd had that space available, might they have signed Welker instead of tagging him? Who knows.



I say there's nothing wrong in taking a risk every now and then on an iffy guy to see if he has anything left in the tank, as long as its a measured risk, and he's not giving away the store


They had $7.5 mil in 2013 cap space devoted to Brandon Lloyd, Jonathan Fanene, and Chad Ochocinco (still!). That's the first year hit for a towards the top free agent. Or for two solid guys who aren't washed up pschotic, crippled, or idiots.

I wish he'd just hire a guy who could run a draft, make the rare top of the class free agent signing and go that way. It can work. Then he wouldn't have to make all these 'genius' moves in the draft and in free agency/trades that more often than not don't work and wind up costing you cap space. (read;  players who could actually contribute)

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Post by Rick Sat May 24, 2014 10:29 am

Still don't know why he didn't bring Blount back?  I've never really seen an explanation.


The running game's important.
Running backs aren't.


Cliche of the day.

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Post by guppy Mon May 26, 2014 10:31 pm

Rick wrote:

I wish he'd just hire a guy who could run a draft, make the rare top of the class free agent signing and go that way. It can work.


Rare top of the class free agent signing?  You mean like Darrell Revis for instance?



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Post by Rick Sat May 31, 2014 11:36 am

guppy wrote:
Rick wrote:

I wish he'd just hire a guy who could run a draft, make the rare top of the class free agent signing and go that way. It can work.


Rare top of the class free agent signing?  You mean like Darrell Revis for instance?




No. Hes a rental. A move they had to make but not what I'm talking about.
Adalius Thomas is what I mean. They had a need, saw a top teir guy they thought could fill it, made a market rate offer and got him.
It's the only time in 14 years I can think of they did that.
The results were awful, but I'll never fault them for the execution.

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Post by guppy Sat May 31, 2014 3:07 pm

Rick wrote:
guppy wrote:
Rick wrote:

I wish he'd just hire a guy who could run a draft, make the rare top of the class free agent signing and go that way. It can work.


Rare top of the class free agent signing?  You mean like Darrell Revis for instance?




No. Hes a rental.


I guess time will tell.

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Post by George1963 Sat May 31, 2014 7:16 pm

guppy wrote:
Rick wrote:
guppy wrote:
Rick wrote:

I wish he'd just hire a guy who could run a draft, make the rare top of the class free agent signing and go that way. It can work.


Rare top of the class free agent signing?  You mean like Darrell Revis for instance?




No. Hes a rental.


I guess time will tell.


They can't keep him Gup. The timing of when they signed him, when you can redo a deal, when that big second year jump is due, it's like a poison pill in his favor. r.ick's right. He's a rental. He's also wrong though, I think. Wouldn't Rosie Colvin fit your criteria?
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Post by guppy Sun Jun 01, 2014 7:31 pm

George1963 wrote:

No. Hes a rental.


I guess time will tell.


They can't keep him Gup. The timing of when they signed him, when you can redo a deal, when that big second year jump is due, it's like a poison pill in his favor. r.ick's right. He's a rental. He's also wrong though, I think. Wouldn't Rosie Colvin fit your criteria?


When Rick said Adalius Thomas, I also thought of Colvin.

I agree D.R. is probably going to be too expensive after this year.  But, a couple of things before we ship him off to his next bid deal.  First, it depends on how this season plays out, his health, his performance, and thus his price tag for the next year, and what team is going to step up and pay that kind of money for a shut-down corner, thinking that he will be the difference for them?  This is his big gamble, and the dealer hasn't turned all the cards over yet. 

Second, some of it depends on whether he enjoyed winning the Superbowl, and how badly he wants to win another one.  If really liked getting that ring, then maybe he adjusts his attitude about money being the be-all and end-all, and he follows Brady's example of not going for broke, and signing a team-friendly deal to stay in NE and keep a good thing going.   Very Happy 

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Post by George1963 Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:12 am


Second, some of it depends on whether he enjoyed winning the Superbowl, and how badly he wants to win another one.



Orit could hinge on how much he disliked getting smoked by Luck and Hilton in the divisional round and whether or not he thinks it would be nice to play half his games indoors.
Ya never know.
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Post by guppy Mon Jun 02, 2014 7:36 pm

George1963 wrote:
Orit could hinge on how much he disliked getting smoked by Luck and Hilton in the divisional round and whether or not he thinks it would be nice to play half his games indoors.
Ya never know.


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Post by George1963 Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:11 am

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Yea, that's cute.

I was only being half way serious, but Luck threw straight at the best corner in the league for 140 and 2 tds last year. You think the second best is really gonna scare him?
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Post by guppy Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:52 am

George1963 wrote:
I was only being half way serious, but Luck threw straight at the best corner in the league for 140 and 2 tds last year. You think the second best is really gonna scare him?


Best corner?  Hmm.  I seem to recall that when Mr. Luck squared off against Patrick Peterson and his Arizona Cardinals he had a very unspectacular game, and his Colts got smoked.  So I can't really be impressed with that.


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Post by LRJets Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:56 am

I long for the days when NE fans would knock Revis.  Did something happen to reverse this pattern? Very Happy 


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Post by guppy Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:03 am

LRJets wrote:I long for the days when NE fans would knock Revis.  Did something happen to reverse this pattern? Very Happy 


The same thing that happened when NY fans used to knock Jacoby Ellsbury. 

Now they wear his jersey.


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Post by guppy Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:05 am

LRJets wrote:I long for the days when NE fans would knock Revis.  Did something happen to reverse this pattern? Very Happy 


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 Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy 
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Post by George1963 Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:13 am

George1963 wrote:
I was only being half way serious, but Luck threw straight at the best corner in the league for 140 and 2 tds last year. You think the second best is really gonna scare him?


Best corner?  Hmm.  I seem to recall that when Mr. Luck squared off against Patrick Peterson and his Arizona Cardinals he had a very unspectacular game, and his Colts got smoked.  So I can't really be impressed with that.


Patrick Peterson? Pfft! I spit in his general direction. (Not really. He's little but pretty good)


Revis can be Revis all he wants, and you know I'm a fan, but if the Pats can't get a push up front, he's pretty much useless. Dennard losing a guy after 5 seconds is the same as Revis losing him. Just a lot cheaper.
We'll see.
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Post by guppy Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:19 am

George1963 wrote:George1963 wrote:
I was only being half way serious, but Luck threw straight at the best corner in the league for 140 and 2 tds last year. You think the second best is really gonna scare him?


Best corner?  Hmm.  I seem to recall that when Mr. Luck squared off against Patrick Peterson and his Arizona Cardinals he had a very unspectacular game, and his Colts got smoked.  So I can't really be impressed with that.


Patrick Peterson? Pfft! I spit in his general direction. (Not really. He's little but pretty good)


Revis can be Revis all he wants, and you know I'm a fan, but if the Pats can't get a push up front, he's pretty much useless. Dennard losing a guy after 5 seconds is the same as Revis losing him. Just a lot cheaper.
We'll see.


Ya, and then there was this:

But I'm engaging in a little nostalgia here.

Notice Revis doesn't touch Moss coming off the line.  We'll coach him up a little better here.  Grab, clutch, hold.  Whatever it takes.  Make life harder for these receivers.  Like the old days.


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Post by LRJets Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:16 pm

guppy wrote:
LRJets wrote:







Just make sure you get your security deposit back if,  ummmm if things don't work out.   Next year BB will need a starting CB.  He knows it, Mr. Kraft knows it, you know it, and  George knows .  These one year rentals can be tricky.
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Post by guppy Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:46 pm

LRJets wrote:
guppy wrote:
LRJets wrote:







Just make sure you get your security deposit back if,  ummmm if things don't work out.   Next year BB will need a starting CB.  He knows it, Mr. Kraft knows it, you know it, and  George knows .  These one year rentals can be tricky.


This rental came without a security deposit.  Just a flat fee.

Admittedly, I'm no expert in this stuff, but here are the Patriots' actual options at the end of the year:

1.  Pay Revis the agreed-to number in the second year of the present contract - $20 Million   affraid ,

2.  Release him, and absorb a $7 M hit of dead cap money  Sleep , (then as a replacement, sign some other corner coming off an injury whose best days are behind him, and totally piss off all Pats fans everywhere)

3.  Re-do the contract and sign him to a multi year deal, in line with whatever Richard Sherman and the other elites at his position are getting  jocolor .

Which one will they do?  study 


Lets just say one of the above options is far more likely than the other two.


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Post by George1963 Tue Jun 03, 2014 6:43 pm

This rental came without a security deposit.  Just a flat fee.

Admittedly, I'm no expert in this stuff, but here are the Patriots' actual options at the end of the year:

1.  Pay Revis the agreed-to number in the second year of the present contract - $20 Million   [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] ,

2.  Release him, and absorb a $7 M hit of dead cap money  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] , (then as a replacement, sign some other corner coming off an injury whose best days are behind him, and totally piss off all Pats fans everywhere)

3.  Re-do the contract and sign him to a multi year deal, in line with whatever Richard Sherman and the other elites at his position are getting  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] .

Which one will they do?  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] 


Lets just say one of the above options is far more likely than the other two.



No. They can't pick up that 20 mil option. Really. They can't. If they pick it up it's guaranteed. Cut him or not he gets paid and the number's on the cap and it won't fit. They can't pick up that option. The league won't let them if it puts the over the cap.

I think his people built it that way and I give them credit. A player has a poison pill. God Bless America. They also can't redo it before it's due. When he signed, when the option is due, it's a matter of hours, but it matters.

Maybe he resigns with them when he hits free agency, but with the five mil in dead money they're already carrying for him what's his 2015 hit?
17, 18 20? For a corner?
One year.
Enjoy the highlight reel stuff he'll give you.
And he will.
One of my favorite players to watch in the last 5 or 6 years.
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Post by LRJets Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:22 pm

George1963 wrote:This rental came without a security deposit.  Just a flat fee.

Admittedly, I'm no expert in this stuff, but here are the Patriots' actual options at the end of the year:

1.  Pay Revis the agreed-to number in the second year of the present contract - $20 Million   [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] ,

2.  Release him, and absorb a $7 M hit of dead cap money  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] , (then as a replacement, sign some other corner coming off an injury whose best days are behind him, and totally piss off all Pats fans everywhere)

3.  Re-do the contract and sign him to a multi year deal, in line with whatever Richard Sherman and the other elites at his position are getting  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] .

Which one will they do?  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] 
All kidding aside, it will be a clean break.  He will want $16MM, Kraft won't pay that.  I don't think it will happen even  if NE wins the SB.  Sad he is such a rare talent shut out the big WRs of the season in his Jets days.   He just prefers the mercenary role.   I always wished he wanted say 10-12 MM over a long time, not "almost -elite QB money".



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Post by guppy Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:33 pm

George1963 wrote:This rental came without a security deposit.  Just a flat fee.

Admittedly, I'm no expert in this stuff, but here are the Patriots' actual options at the end of the year:

1.  Pay Revis the agreed-to number in the second year of the present contract - $20 Million   [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] ,

2.  Release him, and absorb a $7 M hit of dead cap money  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] , (then as a replacement, sign some other corner coming off an injury whose best days are behind him, and totally piss off all Pats fans everywhere)

3.  Re-do the contract and sign him to a multi year deal, in line with whatever Richard Sherman and the other elites at his position are getting  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] .

Which one will they do?  [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] 


Lets just say one of the above options is far more likely than the other two.



No. They can't pick up that 20 mil option. Really. They can't. If they pick it up it's guaranteed. Cut him or not he gets paid and the number's on the cap and it won't fit. They can't pick up that option. The league won't let them if it puts the over the cap.

I think his people built it that way and I give them credit. A player has a poison pill. God Bless America. They also can't redo it before it's due. When he signed, when the option is due, it's a matter of hours, but it matters.

Maybe he resigns with them when he hits free agency, but with the five mil in dead money they're already carrying for him what's his 2015 hit?
17, 18 20? For a corner?
One year.
Enjoy the highlight reel stuff he'll give you.
And he will.
One of my favorite players to watch in the last 5 or 6 years.


Alright.  Of course I do agree that they will not pick up the $20M option for 2015.  The cap hit would be $25 M.  So what I do not understand is, why did the Patriots do the 2015 part of the contract?  Its not real.  Right from the start there is no intent to go through with it.  So what was the point?  Why would sophisticated business men who have a certain track record of conservatism involving financial matters, do this?  Did the player force them into it, and they just didn't care because they were not willing to risk a multi year deal with the player, but at the same time desperately wanted him for one year, so they would cave in and agree to whatever it took?  What possible advantage were these contract terms to the team?  Based on history, you have to give them the credit for not doing things without a reason.  You don't just willy nilly put in a contract that you will pay a corner $20M, knowing that its not ever going to happen.  Everything is done for a reason.  What was theirs? 

I don't expect and am not looking for an explanation that purports to go inside their thinking.  I'm just asking the question rhetorically.  I'm talking pure business here.  Not sports.  Not "Hatetriots".  Not BB, Kraft, or any personalities.  Just pure black and white, hard core business.  I just don't understand why successful, sophisticated businessmen would do a two year contract where the first year is the real part of the contract, and the second year is the phony part.  Why do the second part at all?  What possible benefit is there to the organization?

In any case, Aqib Talib is upset at NE.  He thinks if they paid that money to Revis, they could have paid it to him, and they chose not to.  As Talib said about Deion Branch when he signed with the Colts for one game, "Cash that check baby."



 
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